NIMET’s Flood Prediction: Listening to the Warning Call

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With the recent weather warnings given by the Nigerian Metrological Agency (NIMET) that some states may witness another flooding in 2013, Abu Michael, CPS to the Kogi State Deputy Governor, writes that the forecast portend  grave danger for flood prone communities across the State.

Yes, an ominous future lies in store for residents living in flood prone areas of Kogi State. Sadly enough, many of them are not really aware of what the nature has in store for them in a new world with an ever changing climate.

But their ignorance will not in any way change the 2013 seasonal rainfall forecast, for which the Nigerian Metrological Agency (NIMET), predicted rains of severe magnitude.

Apparently, the implications of NIMET’s prediction are grave for flood prone Local Government Areas, such as Ajaokuta, Idah, Igalamella-Odolu, Ofu, Lokoja, Ibaji, Omala, Bassa and Kogi, these are not the best of times.

The Kogi State Government has issued a warning, telling those in flood prone areas to relocate to higher ground until the predicted flood “pass by” as each of them is susceptible to flooding. This warning is anchored on records of last year’s flood disaster. Furthermore, the natural phenomena that controlled the year 2012 rainfall are still in force.

Though the State Government has put in place measures to mitigate the impact of the coming flood disaster, the warning to move to higher ground can no longer be over-emphasized. The warning is real because no human being can hold back nature. The frequency of rains this year goes also to buttress NIMET’s prediction.

The prediction indeed suggests a grim future which is expected to hit the predicted states as we approach the peak of the raining season.

What is more disturbing is the level of awareness among residents of flood prone areas that the residents or dwellers of these areas are living in complete denial or are displacing a sense of ignorance to the prediction and warning.

It is important to state that people are not supposed to live on flood plains as law forbids such areas to be occupied either as permanent or temporary residence.

Similarly, the State Government has not from records available given approval to any of such buildings in the flood prone areas of the State.

While many see relocation from flood prone areas to higher ground as alien some others see it as a big issue making them not wanting to leave their economic environment which they say provides them with means of livelihood. Others also fail to relocate due to high cost of getting alternative apartments in upland areas, while majority others are living in their own homes, thus making relocation never an option.

With the 2012 flood which ravaged the state leaving behind tales of woes, several lessons have been learnt, that flood plains are natural disaster zones making government not to designate them for residence or economic activities.

Those living in flood prone areas are therefore advised to comply with the State Government’s directive, which has constantly warn of the dangers of living on flood plains.

While it is the prayer of the State Government for the NIMET’s 2013 prediction not to see the light of day, those living on flood plains need to be at alert and relocate as the need arises.

The State Government’s preparedness to respond to Emergencies and Humanitarian Services which might result in the 2013 flood is much more coordinated than in the past year, the appeal however is for the people to relocate completely from their abode in flood plain areas while they should also desist from acts that could lead to flooding such as indiscriminate dumping of refuse in unauthorized places like canals, illegal building of structures on water ways, drainage alignments, road setbacks and verges. To be forewarned the adage says is to be fore armed.

Similarly, a stitch in time when people comply with Government’s directive will enable Government save nine in lives and in properties.


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