By Musa Tanimu Nasidi
The recent position credited to Rt. Hon. Alfa Imam and Chief Richard Asaje that the political future of Kogi West lies with Kogi Central, and that the people of the West should abandon the agitation for “Kogi West Turn” in 2027, deserves a serious political rethink.
With due respect to the two respected political leaders, Kogi West undoubtedly needs political alliances ahead of 2027. But such an alliance should not be presented as though the future of Kogi West depends exclusively on Kogi Central.
Kogi West needs both Kogi Central and Kogi East.
The political reality of Kogi State demands that leaders of the West build bridges across the entire state rather than place all their political calculations on one senatorial district.
The East cannot simply be ignored
The argument that Kogi West should align with Central because Central has five local government areas, while the West has seven, raises an important question: what happens to Kogi East, which has nine local government areas and a substantial voting population?
If the objective is to build a winning coalition in 2027, it would be politically unrealistic for Kogi West to overlook a senatorial district with nine local government areas and significant electoral strength.
The West cannot afford to choose between Central and East.
It needs both.
If the argument is about numbers, then the numerical strength of Kogi East must be part of the calculation. If the argument is about political alliance, then all three senatorial districts should be brought to the negotiating table.
Therefore, to say categorically that the future of Kogi West “lies with Central” while seemingly leaving Kogi East out of the equation does not appear to represent the broader political interest of the West.
The Osun lesson: Political power does not automatically deliver votes
Perhaps the most instructive lesson for Kogi politicians comes from the recently concluded Osun State governorship election.
The ruling party entered the election with enormous political machinery and the presence of senior political figures and governors in the state. Yet, when the people went to the polls, the electorate demonstrated that political influence from outside the polling booth cannot replace the voters’ decision.
Governor Ademola Adeleke, contesting on the platform of the Accord Party, was declared winner with 511,067 votes, defeating the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 votes. Adeleke won 19 of Osun’s 30 local government areas, while the APC won 11.
The significance of the Osun experience goes beyond the figures.
It reminds political leaders that the people ultimately have the ballot.
The presence of powerful politicians, governors, party structures and what is popularly described as “federal might” may influence an election, but it cannot automatically guarantee victory.
The Osun election should therefore serve as a warning against the assumption that political calculations made by a few influential individuals will necessarily translate into the votes of ordinary citizens.
Performance matters
This brings us to another critical factor that should be considered in Kogi’s 2027 calculations: performance.
The chances of any political party or candidate winning or retaining office cannot be determined solely by geography, zoning or political alliances.
The performance of the governor, senators, members of the House of Representatives, state lawmakers, local government chairmen and other political office holders will influence how voters respond at the polls.
Governance has consequences.
Where political office holders have performed creditably, attracted projects, supported education, empowered youths, improved healthcare and demonstrated responsiveness to constituents, such records can generate electoral goodwill.
Where performance is considered disappointing, however, political arithmetic alone may not save a candidate.
The Osun experience reinforces this point. The electorate can listen to political leaders, watch campaign rallies and observe the movement of powerful personalities, but ultimately, voters make their own calculations.
Governor Adeleke himself described his re-election as a “thank you” from the people for what he regarded as the dividends of democracy delivered by his administration.
Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, the message is clear: performance and voters’ perception of performance matter in elections.
Numbers alone do not decide elections
The argument that Kogi West cannot produce the next governor simply because it has seven local government areas is also an oversimplification.
Governorship elections are not won by counting local government areas.
They are won by candidates who can attract votes across the state and satisfy the constitutional requirements for victory.
A candidate from Kogi West can obtain substantial votes in Central and East. A candidate from Central can equally obtain votes in West and East. An East candidate must also seek support beyond the nine local government areas of the district.
This is why political leaders should focus on coalition-building, competence, performance and acceptability, rather than reducing the 2027 contest to arithmetic.
Kogi West Turn remains a legitimate aspiration
The call for “Kogi West Turn” should not be interpreted as a demand that the West must govern without the support of Central or East.
It is simply an expression of political aspiration.
There is nothing wrong with Kogi West presenting a candidate and asking Central and East to support that candidate.
If such a candidate is competent, acceptable and capable of building a statewide coalition, why should the aspiration be dismissed simply because the West has seven local government areas?
The appropriate response should be to test the candidate before the electorate.
Let the candidate present a programme.
Let the candidate defend his or her record.
Let Central and East assess the candidate.
Let the people vote.
That is democracy.
Kogi West should not choose between Central and East
Chief Richard Asaje and Rt. Hon. Alfa Imam may sincerely believe that an alliance with Central is the best political strategy for Kogi West.
They are entitled to that position.
But there is a difference between advocating an alliance and declaring that the political future of an entire senatorial district lies exclusively with another district.
Kogi West should not be forced into an either-or political calculation.
It should build bridges with Central.
It should build bridges with East.
It should negotiate with both.
And it should ensure that whichever alliance it enters protects the political and developmental interests of its people.
The danger of writing off Kogi East
The suggestion that Kogi East will always prefer its own should also be treated with caution.
Politics is dynamic.
Voters are not permanently tied to the interests of their senatorial district. They can support candidates from other zones when they believe such candidates are credible, competent and capable of delivering good governance.
The same applies to Central and West.
Rather than telling Kogi West that East cannot be trusted, political leaders should be building confidence across the three districts.
Kogi State needs a governor who can unite East, West and Central—not one whose emergence depends on permanently excluding one section.
The people must have the final say
The Osun experience has demonstrated an important democratic lesson: no amount of political mobilisation should make leaders forget the people who ultimately cast the votes.
A large political gathering may create an impression of strength.
A long convoy may create an impression of power.
The presence of governors and national political figures may create an impression of inevitability.
But none of these substitutes for the ballot.
When the people enter the polling booth, they make their own decision.
That is why Kogi politicians should approach 2027 with humility.
The people are not delegates to be instructed. They are citizens with the constitutional right to choose their leaders.
Let 2027 be about competence, equity and performance
The 2027 contest should therefore not be reduced to whether Kogi West has seven local government areas, Central has five or East has nine.
It should be about who can build the broadest coalition.
Who has performed?
Who is competent?
Who is credible?
Who is acceptable across the three senatorial districts?
Who can unite Kogi State?
And who can convince the electorate that his or her administration will improve the lives of ordinary citizens?
These are the questions that should dominate the conversation.
Kogi West needs Central.
Kogi West needs East.
But above all, Kogi West needs a political strategy that protects its long-term interests.
The West should negotiate with both districts, build bridges with both and refuse to be trapped in a politics of either-or.
Chief Asaje and Rt. Hon. Alfa Imam have every right to support Central. But the people of Kogi West also have every right to consider other political options.
Alignment is partnership; it must never become political subordination.
The lesson from Osun is simple: political power may organise the rally, but only the people can cast the votes.
And in 2027, Kogi politicians would do well to remember that.
– Musa Tanimu Nasidi is a public analyst and journalist. He writes from Lokoja, Kogi State.
