By Michael Adebowale
The political permutations ahead of the 2027 general elections in Kogi State raise a fundamental question that deserves serious consideration: Can Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo secure victory for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the state without Senator Sunday Karimi on the ballot?
While the legal battle over the Kogi West senatorial ticket remains unresolved, with an appeal expected to determine the next course of action, the broader political implications of the dispute cannot be ignored.
Beyond the courtroom, the question is whether the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) can retain its electoral strength in Kogi West without the political influence and grassroots appeal of Senator Karimi.
For many political observers, the answer may not be as straightforward as the government would wish. Karimi’s political relevance, particularly in Kogi West, cannot be dismissed without examining the prevailing mood of the electorate and the challenges confronting the state.
One of the major concerns is the perceived disconnect between the government and the grassroots. Critics of the Ododo administration point to poor road infrastructure, inadequate access to potable water and what they describe as selective empowerment programmes. These concerns, whether acknowledged by the government or not, have implications for public confidence and electoral support.
Elections are not won merely through political endorsements, party structures or government influence. They require sustained engagement with the people, effective service delivery and the ability to translate political promises into tangible benefits.
The challenge becomes more pronounced when the state of local government administration is considered. The allegation that there has been no substantial recruitment into the local government system for about 15 years raises serious questions about youth employment and the future of public service in Kogi State.
For thousands of graduates, the absence of fresh recruitment opportunities has meant prolonged unemployment and limited prospects within the civil service. Many young people have consequently turned to commercial motorcycling, farming and other informal activities, while others have sought opportunities outside the state.
This is a constituency whose political disposition cannot be taken for granted. A government seeking electoral support must demonstrate that it understands the economic frustrations of the people and has practical solutions to address them.
It is against this background that supporters of Senator Karimi highlight his interventions in empowerment, educational assistance, scholarships and other constituency-based programmes. They argue that such interventions have helped to address some of the gaps in public service delivery, particularly among disadvantaged communities.
The education sector presents another area of concern. Reports of inadequate teachers in public primary and secondary schools, coupled with dilapidated classrooms and insufficient learning materials, have continued to generate public anxiety.
Where a school is compelled to operate with one or two teachers handling several classes or subjects, the quality of education inevitably comes under pressure. Such conditions undermine the future of children and place additional burdens on parents.
Karimi’s supporters have cited his interventions in classroom construction, bursary payments and the provision of educational materials as evidence of his commitment to human capital development. While such interventions cannot replace the constitutional responsibilities of government, they remain important contributions to the development of the constituency.
Security is another critical issue that could shape the 2027 electoral calculations.
Concerns over kidnapping, banditry and other criminal activities along parts of Kogi West, including the Kabba-Lokoja corridor and communities in Yagba, have heightened public anxiety. The consequences are particularly severe for farmers, traders and rural dwellers whose livelihoods depend on freedom of movement and access to their farms and markets.
No government can reasonably expect unquestioning political loyalty from citizens who feel unsafe in their homes and communities. The protection of lives and property remains one of the most fundamental responsibilities of government.
These challenges provide the context for understanding why the political future of Senator Karimi has become an important subject in the wider conversation about the APC’s prospects in Kogi State.
Although the courts remain the appropriate institutions to determine the legal dispute over the senatorial ticket, the political dimension cannot be separated from the judicial process. Karimi’s supporters remain optimistic that the Court of Appeal will overturn the Federal High Court judgment and uphold what they regard as his legitimate mandate.
Nevertheless, the outcome of the appeal is a matter for the judiciary, and all parties must respect the final decision.
What should concern the APC leadership, however, is the possibility that internal political disagreements could weaken the party’s electoral prospects at a time when unity and grassroots mobilisation are particularly important.
President Tinubu’s re-election ambition requires effective coordination among party leaders, elected representatives, stakeholders and grassroots organisations across the country. Kogi State cannot afford to approach the 2027 elections with avoidable divisions.
Governor Ododo, therefore, faces a political responsibility that goes beyond securing his own administration’s popularity. He must demonstrate that the APC remains connected to the aspirations of ordinary citizens, particularly in Kogi West, where political representation and the question of equity remain significant.
The argument is not necessarily that one individual holds the key to the political future of an entire state. Rather, it is that political influence, constituency engagement and public confidence are important electoral assets that no serious party should underestimate.
For the people of Kogi West, the ongoing controversy also presents an opportunity to reflect on the kind of representation they desire and the importance of protecting democratic participation.
The slogan, Okun Lokan, has increasingly become a rallying expression among those advocating greater political recognition and a fair opportunity for the Okun people to participate in the leadership and governance of the state.
Ultimately, the 2027 elections will be determined by the electorate, not political declarations or individual ambitions. The APC must therefore recognise that winning the confidence of the people requires more than party loyalty. It demands responsive leadership, inclusive governance, security, employment opportunities and visible development.
Whether Governor Ododo can deliver Kogi State for President Tinubu without Senator Karimi on the ballot remains an open political question. But one reality is difficult to ignore: electoral success will depend significantly on the party’s ability to reconcile its internal differences and reconnect with the grassroots.
For now, the legal process should be allowed to run its course. Beyond the courtroom, however, the APC must confront the political realities on the ground before the 2027 electoral contest begins.
– Michael Adebowale writes from Kabba, Kogi State.
