Political watchers appear taken aback by the recent diplomatic volte-face of the government of Kogi State and the leadership of the ruling APC in the state over the outcome of the senatorial primary in Kogi West.
Senator Steve Sunday Karimi had earlier emerged as the consensus candidate of the APC. All other aspirants subsequently stepped down and publicly declared support for him. It is on record that none of them participated in the party’s primary except Karimi, who was affirmed across the various wards of Kogi West.
The result was announced and publicized, with party faithful and supporters congratulating Senator Karimi on what many described as a highly merited victory. The people of Kogi West equally celebrated what they considered a political breakthrough for the district.
But less than 48 hours later, the game suddenly changed. The gates were opened to strange political aberrations. The familiar style of political manipulation that characterized the eight year reign of former governor Yahaya Bello resurfaced dramatically from its hiding place.
Hon. Sam Aro, who had earlier stepped down for Karimi and did not participate in the primary election, was suddenly announced winner. Ironically, many observers have compared the development to the controversial political circumstances that led to Yahaya Bello becoming governor in 2015 despite not originally participating as the party’s governorship candidate during the election process.
Many who believed that Karimi’s emergence as consensus candidate was part of a strategic understanding with the Presidency were thrown into confusion, wondering where the arrangement suddenly collapsed.
However, not many initially understood that the political drama unfolding in Kogi West is merely a reflection of a deeper contest for the soul of Kogi politics ahead of 2027.
Governor Usman Ododo is naturally interested in securing a second term. His political benefactor and predecessor, former governor Yahaya Bello, still widely regarded in many quarters as the de facto power center in Kogi politics, is believed to be even more desperate about retaining political control of the state beyond 2027.
According to prevailing political calculations, the power bloc around Ododo and Bello allegedly accepted to support Senator Karimi, who many believe enjoys the confidence of the Presidency, in exchange for expected presidential support for Ododo’s second term ambition.
For a moment, the arrangement appeared settled.
But fresh signals reportedly emerged from Abuja concerning the growing determination of the Presidency to deepen the “Renewed Hope” philosophy through political equity and inclusion.
This trend became visible during the recent APC governorship primaries across several states. In Kwara State, APC moved power to Kwara North Senatorial District, a zone that had never produced a governor since 1999. In Nasarawa State, Nasarawa West, another historically marginalized district, secured the APC governorship ticket. Similar equity conversations strongly shaped political negotiations in Abia and Ekiti states, where agitation from previously excluded senatorial districts became central to APC succession debates.
The emerging pattern within the APC appears clear: senatorial districts that have remained politically marginalized since 1999 are increasingly being considered for power rotation under the broader Renewed Hope agenda.
It was this development, many analysts believe, that triggered anxiety within the Kogi political establishment.
For the Ododo/Bello camp, the implication was frighteningly obvious: if the equity principle being quietly encouraged at the national level eventually extends to Kogi State, then Kogi West, the only senatorial district in the state that has never produced an elected governor in the current democratic dispensation, may become the natural beneficiary of the APC governorship ticket in 2027.
Feeling politically endangered by this possibility, the Kogi power structure allegedly began to reconsider its earlier concession to Senator Karimi.
What initially appeared as a strategic alliance suddenly transformed into a perceived political threat.
Consequently, the senatorial primary result was allegedly altered even after public announcement and celebration, in what critics now describe as not merely a dispute over a Senate seat, but the opening battle in a larger war over who controls the political future of Kogi State in 2027.
The crisis, therefore, goes beyond Karimi or Sam Aro. It is fundamentally about whether the politics of exclusion will continue in Kogi State, or whether the emerging APC equity trend across the country will eventually find expression in Kogi West.
That is why many now see the unfolding controversy not simply as a case of result manipulation, but as a defining contest for the soul of Kogi State ahead of 2027.
– Pastor Stanley Ajileye writes from Lokoja.
