The emergence of Senator Ahmed Salau Ogembe as the candidate of African Democratic Congress (ADC) has substantially altered predictions ahead of the 2027 senatorial election in Kogi Central.
Much touted to be a straight fight between Alhaji Yahaya Bello of All Progressives Congress and Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan of the Peoples Democratic Party, the entrance of Senator Ogembe has turned the senatorial permutations into a three-horse race.
Kogi Central covers Adavi, Ajaokuta, Okehi, Okene, and Ogori-Magongo, and it has flipped between parties over recent election cycles. The seat was held by Ahmed Ogembe before APC took it in 2019, and Natasha regained it for PDP in 2023.
Senator Ogembe is not a stranger to Kogi Central politics having represented same district in the national assembly between 2016 and 2019. He was also an elected local government chairman in the largest LGA in Kogi Central, Okene.
While not giving him the sole credit, but it is important to note that Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan won the 2023 senatorial election with a little above 1,000 votes but was able to garner about 9,000 votes in Okene alone. Alhaji Yahaya Bello is from the same LGA as Ogembe – Okene. With Ogembe on the ballot, the 9,000 votes secured in 2023 is not guaranteed, while the APC candidate will also have to work harder than before to get desired votes. The Senator Ogembe-led Equity Group stood firm and defended PDP’s 9,000 votes in 2023 and will be mopping same votes up for ADC in 2027.
In 2023, APC had lots of problems with Ajaokuta LGA. Senator Akpoti-Uduaghan won in Ajaokuta with men like Dr. Aloysious Okino on ground to defend her votes. Today, Aloysious is with Senator Ogembe in ADC. The Okino Political Group has never been a pushover in Ajaokuta politics. Both PDP and APC candidates will have to work harder than usual.
The three titans heading for a showdown in 2027 are all flying tickets of well structured political parties that the electorate are familiar with. Three of them are not strangers to the people. The people know their antecedents as well.
The campaign strategies of 2023 may not be enough to win the next election in Kogi Central as a lot is at stake.
The battle for the senate seat will not be business as usual. The calculations adopted in 2023 will not work in 2027.
Natasha is the incumbent, but if anyone want to argue on who has the deepest political experience, Ogembe is the most direct institutional rival, while Bello is the most powerful inside force shaping the contest.
Experience matters in a district that has alternated between strong personalities and party shifts.
– Ogirima Abdulaziz wrote from Lokoja.
