By Abdullahi Suleiman
Tinubu has gathered too many interests around his presidency. The question is how he is going to manage all these interests without one interest eventually becoming a problem for another.
Maybe his thinking is that the more interests he brings together, the easier it will be for him to win. But this is not state politics that is easy to manage. This is national politics, where every politician has his own interest, ambition and political future to protect.
Would a politician sacrifice his own interest simply because of Tinubu’s presidency?
This is where the role of Wike becomes very interesting.
Wike’s relevance today is tied to Tinubu. There is no doubt that he has helped Tinubu weaken the PDP to perhaps its weakest point.
But politics is never only about what happens today. The bigger question is what happens when the interests of those who helped the president begin to clash with the interests of the APC governors who are expected to deliver him.
Would they sit down and watch Wike use his Rainbow Coalition to garner more states while they become politically orphaned in their own states?
This is the danger.
What Wike appears to be planning is bigger than Rivers and the FCT. He wants to use the Rainbow Coalition to implant his loyalists, allies and political stooges in many states.
If that happens, Wike will not only remain relevant; he will have a bargaining strength that could make him difficult for anybody to ignore.
Look at Kogi.
In Kogi Central, some supporters of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan are already banking on Wike to use his federal might and political influence to help her against former Governor Yahaya Bello.
If Wike backs Natasha, perhaps as part of an arrangement to help deliver President Tinubu in the same election, then what happens to other APC candidates?
How will the voter understand it? You are telling a voter to vote APC for president and then vote PDP for another elected office.
The president may need to win, but he also needs his party to maintain the majority in both chambers of the National Assembly. What happens when the same political arrangement that helps Tinubu win begins to work against APC senators and House of Representatives candidates?
That is where the whole arrangement becomes confusing.
And Kogi may only be one example.
Consider Gombe.
Isa Ali Pantami is another name that could become important in this political calculation.
If Pantami is able to use Wike’s platform and the emerging political realignment to build a stronger political structure in Gombe, it could become a serious threat to the sitting governor and the governor’s own political ambition.
A governor who believes he controls his state today may discover tomorrow that another political structure has quietly been built underneath him.
This is the kind of thing the governors need to worry about.
The same calculation applies to Kwara.
AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s senatorial ambition could also come under pressure if Bukola Saraki continues to penetrate the political space around Wike’s coalition.
Saraki understands Kwara politics very well. He knows the people, the structures and the political calculations. If he sees Wike’s platform as an opportunity to return to the centre of political relevance in Kwara, why would he sit down and watch AbdulRazaq consolidate everything?
This is no longer just about helping Tinubu.
It is about who will control the political structures after Tinubu wins.
And this is where the political calculations of Hope Uzodinma, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and other APC governors become complicated.
The Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum and the Chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum may believe that Wike’s script will help deliver the president.
They may support the arrangement because they believe the most important thing is for Tinubu to win.
But could they eventually become the sacrificial lambs?
That is the question.
Hope Uzodinma has his own political ambition in Imo. AbdulRazaq has his own political calculations in Kwara. The Gombe governor also has his own political future to protect.
If Wike is helping people who can challenge these governors or their preferred candidates, then these governors may eventually realise that the political arrangement they supported for Tinubu’s victory is working against them.
Wike is not a politician who is easily satisfied.
He is a domineering politician who wants to remain relevant and have a say in the political direction of things. He is not likely to say, “I have Rivers and FCT, let me stop here.” Politics does not work that way, especially for a politician like Wike. He wants bargaining strength.
And the best way to have bargaining strength is to have people in different states who owe their political relevance to you.
That is what makes the Rainbow Coalition interesting.
Wike may help Tinubu deliver the presidency, but at the same time, he could be building a network that gives him influence over senators, members of the House of Representatives, governors and future governors.
If that happens, who will be able to challenge him?
This is where some APC governors may be making a serious mistake if they think that because Wike is helping Tinubu, he will automatically protect their interests.
Politics is about interest. Every politician is looking after his own political future.
Some governors are already planning to go to the Senate after leaving office. Others want to install their preferred successors.
Some have also denied tickets to politicians who will not forget what happened to them.
Those people will fight back.
The politicians who were denied tickets by governors will certainly fight those governors to the end. If Wike gives them a platform, they may have the opportunity they have been waiting for.
This is where Wike’s strategy could become very dangerous for the governors. A governor may have all the resources today, but if his political structure is divided and his enemies find a powerful ally outside the state, his political future can become very uncertain.
There is also a lesson from 2003 that governors should not forget. In that election, President Olusegun Obasanjo asked governors to deliver him. Many governors did exactly that. But delivering the president did not automatically save all of them from losing their own political battles. Some governors who worked for Obasanjo’s victory eventually lost their own reelection battles.
The lesson is very clear: you can help a president win and still lose your own political future. That is why the current arrangement deserves serious attention.
Tinubu may need Wike. Wike has political experience, influence and the ability to bring together people from different political camps. But Wike also needs to remain relevant. He cannot afford to become politically irrelevant after helping Tinubu win. So, while he is helping Tinubu, he is also thinking about his own political future. That is why I believe the Rainbow Coalition is not just about delivering Tinubu. It is also about building a political network that Wike can use to remain relevant after the election.
Look again at Kogi.
If Wike backs Natasha and she wins, Wike gains a strong ally in the National Assembly.
In Gombe, if Pantami emerges stronger through the same political realignment, Wike gains another political asset.
In Kwara, if Saraki finds a route back into the political equation through the coalition, Wike gains another powerful political connection.
And if similar arrangements emerge in Imo and other states, Wike’s political influence will have gone far beyond Rivers and the FCT.
That is bargaining power. And bargaining power is what every ambitious politician wants.
The APC governors therefore need to ask themselves some difficult questions.
What happens if they deliver Tinubu but lose their preferred Senate candidates?
What happens if they deliver the president but lose control of their state political structures?
What happens if the people they denied tickets to become the same people Wike uses to defeat them?
What happens if their preferred successors are defeated by candidates backed by a political network they helped create?
These are not small questions. The 2027 election may not simply be APC versus PDP or APC versus ADC. It may be a complicated contest where politicians support Tinubu at the presidential level while fighting each other at the senatorial, House of Representatives and governorship levels. A politician can support Tinubu and still oppose an APC governor. A politician can work for the president and still work against the governor of his state. That is the contradiction the APC governors need to understand. The president needs to win, but he also needs his party to remain strong.
If the strategy for delivering Tinubu weakens APC’s governors and reduces the party’s majority in the National Assembly, then the president may win the battle for the presidency and still inherit a political problem within his own party.
This is why Wike’s Rainbow Coalition should be watched carefully.
Wike may be helping Tinubu today, but he is also building his own relevance for tomorrow. The question is not whether Wike wants Tinubu to win.
The real question is: after Tinubu wins, whose political future will Wike strengthen, and whose political future will he bury?
Because Wike is not a contented politician. He wants influence. He wants relevance. He wants bargaining power. And if the Rainbow Coalition gives him the platform to implant loyalists and political allies across several states, some APC governors may discover too late that the man helping them deliver the president is also helping to build the political forces that could challenge them after the election.
The 2027 election therefore has many underpinnings.
It is not only about Tinubu.
It is about Wike.
It is about the governors.
It is about the politicians who were denied tickets.
It is about those looking for a political comeback.
It is about those trying to secure Senate seats.
It is about those trying to install successors.
And, ultimately, it is about who will control the political machinery when the votes are counted.
The Rainbow Coalition may help Tinubu win the presidency, but the same coalition could create a political storm for the APC governors. And that is the confusion they cannot afford to ignore.
– Abdullahi Suleiman writes from Abuja
