February 23 presidential and national assembly elections has come and gone but the unexpected turns and twists remain a subject of discourse among pundits.
The outcome of the election, particularly in Kogi East, has left many dumbfounded.
Kogi State is divided into two blocs; the Benue and Kwara blocs. Benue bloc represents Kogi East senatorial district comprising of Igalas, Bassa, Bassange and Egburas while the Kwara bloc represents Kogi West and Central senatorial districts.
Before the elections, pundits predicted that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will record massive electoral success in Kogi Central senatorial district. This was quite easy to predict as the sitting Governor Yahaya Bello will leave no stone unturned to ensure a complete sweep of the district for his party. Also, President Muhammadu Buhari enjoys mass appeal among electorate in Kogi Central. Buhari has a cult-like followership in Ebira land. The only visible challenge was posed by the daring amazon, Barr. Natasha Akpoti, the senatorial candidate of Social Democratic Party (SDP). Even at that, Natasha’s SDP openly endorsed Buhari before the election. It was a foregone conclusion that APC will capture Kogi Central district. The results of last Saturday elections in Kogi Central did not come as a surprise.
In Kogi West, pundits expected mixed fortunes for the major political parties. Kogi West senatorial district is made up of the Okun nation and the Lokoja-Koto nation. Okun people, spanning across five local government areas, have always voted for the candidates of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) since 1999. The first time PDP lost in Okun land was in 2016 when Hon. James Faleke paired with late Prince Abubakar Audu on the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship ticket. The ‘Faleke effect’ changed the voting pattern of Okun people.
However, the Lokoja-Koto people are more radical in their political engagements. Lokoja-Koto was a fortress for PDP between 1999 and 2007 but the tide changed when a former Speaker, Kogi State House of Assembly, late Arc. Buba Jibril, left the party for the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Buba contested for the Lokoja-Koto House of Representatives seat in 2007 under CPC and won.
Senator Dino Melaye benefited from the people of Lokoja-Koto’s radical approach to elections in 2016 when he contested and won the Kogi West senatorial election under APC.
With the death of Buba, PDP gained momentum as witnessed during August 2018 bye-elections and last Saturday presidential and national assembly elections. Senator Melaye’s victory last Saturday did not come as a surprise to many. He won all five LGAs in Okunland and in Lokoja but lost Kogi (Koton Karfe) LGA. His victory was also aided by sympathy votes from his people who felt he was wrongly persecuted by the ruling party in the state and at the national level.
However, the outcome of last Saturday election in Kogi East senatorial district proved bookmakers wrong.
Since the creation of Kogi state, the Benue bloc has been dominating the political landscape until 2015 when, through divine intervention, power shifted to the Kwara bloc through the emergence of Governor Yahaya Bello.
As expected, like anybody who suddenly lose power after a long reign, the elders and leaders of Kogi East became relentless in spirited moves to regain power in the state.
Few days to the botched February 16 general elections, the influential Kogi East Elders Council (KEEC) directed the people to vote against President Buhari and other APC candidates. They claimed that every vote cast for APC in the election is a vote to guarantee re-election of Alhaji Yahaya Bello as governor of Kogi state.
They believe Buhari was responsible for the emergence of Bello as governor of the state against all odds.
Without consulting the people, the Kogi East Elders Council sat in Abuja and reeled out directives on how the people should vote.
However, a group of young intellectuals and professionals under the aegis of The Emerging Leaders Forum rose stoutly in defense of Buhari and Bello. They blamed the Kogi East Elders for being largely responsible for the challenges of poverty and under-development bedeviling the area.
The Emerging Leaders Forum, under the leadership of Dr. Usman Ogbo, made it clear to the elders that the people will not ‘return to Egypt’. They kicked against what they termed, ‘partisan directive’ by the council of elders who are largely PDP chieftains. Top members of KEEC like Dr. Ahmadu Ali, Arc. Gabriel Aduku, AVM Salihu Atawodi and Chief John Odawun are well known members of PDP.
The Emerging Leaders Forum with not less than one hundred lawyers, about a hundred PhD holders and other professionals as members, swung into action y deploying its members to mobilize support for Buhari and APC across Kogi East senatorial district.
With membership and mobilization structures in each of the 96 wards and nine local government areas in Kogi East, the Forum launched a robust sensitization across the senatorial district ahead of the all-important elections.
Their efforts paid off as the results from last Saturday election saw APC sweeping all available national assembly seats in Kogi East.
But for the timely intervention of the Emerging Leaders Forum, Kogi East will be wallowing in opposition politics now. Like philosophers who see tomorrow, the Forum took a proactive step by working hard to ensure Kogi East join the mainstream politics in the country.
March 9 House of Assembly election is another testing ground to see the APC have a stronghold in the state. Pundits are monitoring the Emerging Leaders Forum to see if they can re-enact the feat recorded on February 23 in Kogi East.
Dr. Ogbo has insisted that the feat recorded by members of the Emerging Leaders Forum is no fluke as it will be replicated on March 9 and during the next gubernatorial election in the state. He posited that they are neither diaspora politicians nor Android-politicians like those on the other side.
