Politics it is said does not admit itself to scientific study; the standard which would have made it to stand the test of absolute certainty. In otherwise its events would have been based on the variables in occurrence. Hence a subject of formula would have given it a universal outcome. This however is an assumption because it is a long standing resolution that since politics deals with man whose mind is as dark as the night and an unpredictable character, problem as to the universality of result is inevitable.
Nonetheless man’s desire to attempt the odds has been fruitful in some cases. In attempts therefore to predict political events, political analysts have tried to study the surrounding political events by assumptions aiming towards the presentation of results. In some cases it has been successful while in some others cases a failure.
On their achievements, Nigeria is a testimony to some political analysts. Nearly all political events predicted by the political analysts have come to pass. For instance, during the 2015 presidential election many columnists doubled political analysts predicted the defeat of Goodluck Jonathan to the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. Perhaps the prediction success was as the result of the peculiar nature of our political leaders who have common features of failure.
Where our political leaders fail, they do so woefully and where they achieve do so marginally except in some States like Lagos and other Eastern States. This few luckiest states have the common feature of civilise voters who are capable of holding their government to account. Hence it ensures stability in governance.
Political analysts have challenges in developed nations. For instance in United States of America, the work of analysts in making the world to believe Hillary Clinton’s victory over Donald Trump received the world’s greatest shock. Perhaps because the US has armoury educated citizens who judge political events based on the knowledge of current affairs. Hence things could change in the last minute in their political choice.
In our case in Nigeria, not many who take to the polls are imbued with the knowledge of the current affairs like in the developed nation as US. These people whom statistically are youths do not even have the kind of education to dispute this fact. Hence it is the pitfalls of our electoral processes and democracy in particular.
Nonetheless, in the process of trying to manage our current trends, we concede to taking the system the way we see it. That is; we might have to give at least an “attempt to success” in assumption of the political outcomes. This particularly will be the task of this article to analyse the possible outcome of Kogi east politics based on the political developments ongoing in the senatorial zone.
Kogi state comprises of three senatorial zones namely; Kogi Central, Kogi East and Kogi West. Of these Zones, Kogi east boasts of more than 54% of the States population and equally the same statistics applies to the eligible voters of the state. No wonder the area nearly produced for the state a life Igala leadership but for the death of Prince Abubakar Audu.
Going by the above reality a Senator from Kogi east is nearly equal to the state’s governor in terms of political popularity. Hence higher responsibility is placed on the Senator from the area because “to whom more is given, more is expected of him” but the reverse has been the case.
The purpose of this article therefore as noted is to analyse the formula adopted by both major political parties in the state ahead of the 2019 general elections particularly on Kogi east and to see whose calculations works better and in whose favour. Without prejudice this article posits that by analysis the next Kogi east Senator likely might be the person of Engr. John Ibrahim Ocheje and the reason is seen below.
In democracy every part of the society wants to be represented. Just like Nigeria, the Two-Party Kogi state admits itself to political analysis smoothly; the efficacy of the course which depends on the quality of the material considered.
In 2015 the failure of PDP in Kogi provided opportunity for APC to triumph to victory through the un-matching character of Prince Abubakar Audu whose demise paved ways to the fortunate governor Yahaya Bello to come in through the loopholes in the legal system. This made him an opportunist who was on the edge of either blessing or ruin. In fact, the choice was for him to make.
After taking over power the then fortunate Bellos is currently viewed as a failure in both his personality and his administration. In fact, the majority Kogites home and in diaspora see his administration as unprecedented failure which no future administration in the state will be able to expunge from history. To an average Kogite, it is an administration that must be changed in 2019. This puts the repented PDP at the benefits.
As the 2019 gubernatorial election in Kogi state draws closer people are beginning to see the possibility of administrative change in the resolution of the majority people of the state which is the Igala dominated Kogi east. In APC the ruling party, the only governorship material remaining active in the party is Alhaji Jibrin Isah Echocho who has been convinced by the incumbent governor Yahaya Bello to contest for Senate in Kogi east on the allegiance that the latter would transit power to the former. Bello’s open declaration in this regard was during decamping ceremony held in Anyigba where he said that Echocho’s governorship ambition would be realized under him while he is determined to contest for second term. It seems the told Echocho “wait till 2023” is passionately hated by the people particularly the Igalas his people due to his purported pledge to Bello.
Based on the above, APC’s calculations of governorship—Bello and Kogi east Senate—Echocho, the opposition party PDP is given a chance of assumable victory in taking back the state and continuous holding of Kogi east provided they play their cards well (if not very well). Obviously, the APC’s demonstration of Kogi east Senate ticket reservation for Echocho who is in the default of his constituency seems to make PDP a fortunate child.
On the close of APC’0s chance in the state, the faith of PDP is to provide the next State’s governor and the “most eyed PDP governorship aspirants” are 90% from Kogi east while these Igala men and women are cut across the three Federal Constituencies in the senatorial zone. These constituencies are:
- Idah Federal Constituency with the following four local government areas; Idah, Ibaji, Igalamela/Odolu and Ofu.
- Ankpa Federal Constituency with the following three local governments areas; Ankpa, Omala and Olamaboro; and
- Dekina Federal Constituency with the following two local government areas; Dekina and Bassa.
Based on the above statistics, 9 local government areas make up Kogi east. And each of the three Federal Constituencies has provided at least one-time governor for the state. They are;
Prince Abubakar Audu from Ofu in Idah Federal Constituency, Alhaji Idris Ibrahim from Omala in Ankpa Federal Constituency and Capt. Idris Ichalla Wada from Dekina in Dekina Federal Constituency.
Even in Ankpa Federal Constituency where Atai Aidoko is from, the three local government areas are said to be in accord with the PDP’s zoning arrangement as that would enable power shift in the constituency politics too. This creates great challenges for Atai Aidoko in the party from his home. Hence he might have to consider defecting to another party like he has done in the pasts.
Coming to Idah Federal Constituency where serious politics would be played based on the PDP’s zoning arrangement, the four local government areas in the constituency are to be examined critically because two national offices are to the credit of the constituency this time around.
From 2007 to 2011 Idah produced the House of Representative Member of the constituency in Napoleon Idachaba, from 2011 to 2015 Igalamela produced the constituency representative in Ismaila Inah and from 2015 till date Idah again is producing the member representing the constituency in Emmanuel Egwu. The unrepresented local areas from the constituency in the last twelve years are Ibaji and Ofu. These local government areas are now shortlisted to share between themselves the Sanate office and House of Representatives office come 2019 by PDP’s permutations.
While Ofu is presenting candidates for both offices under PDP, Ibaji has given Ofu no option but to produce the Senator in Engr. John Ibrahim Ocheje. Reliable source from Kogi PDP reveals that in the party, diplomacy is seriously working internally to revolve among the candidates for the two offices from Ofu. While the candidates seem to be in lockouts against the move, Ibaji is watching in amazement.
Since Ibaji has given no alternative to Ofu, the diplomatic move it is said should aim at resolving Ofu to consider the lower chamber even when the incumbent Emmanuel Egwu desires re-election making Idah to taste the office for the third time in four consecutive electoral periods provided he wins. This many see as an expensive joke including those from his local government who are aiming for the Senate come 2019. Critical observation however provides that none among the aspiring Senators from Idah and Igalamela/Odolu would succeed given the chance of Ibaji and Ofu.
In fact, the opposition APC seems to be in resolution with PDP on the zoning formula in Idah Federal Constituency and no doubt the two prominent candidates under the party who are contesting for the lower chamber under it are from the same local government area (Ofu). They are Hussein Idrisma and David Zachariahs. The only zoning difference between the two parties is the Senate which APC considers Echocho from Dekina in taste of Bello’s ambitions.
While some people think of Emmanuel Egwu and Ofu local government area candidates for the lower chamber as a potential danger, Ibaji sees this development as no obstacle at all. Indeed it is not! Hence Dr. Victor Adoji from Ofu local government area and the foreseeable opponent to Engr. John Ibrahim in the primaries from the same constituency is to fight a tough battle from his own home.
If Idah Federal Constituency resolves on the two offices between Ofu and Ibaji while the latter takes Senate and former takes the Lower Chamber, then Engr. John Ibrahim is to slugging it out with Atai Aidoko the current Senator representing the senatorial zone (though currently facing serious litigations on his mandate). In fact PDP and the electorates have considered Atai Aidoko not an option at all.
Going by the evaluation so far Engr. John Ibrahim seems to have more peace than Victor Adoji whose battle are many and may be difficult to win. If Adoji realises this, then he is to have sleepless nights where John Ibrahim may decide to snore. However, it is to be noted that Engr. John Ibrahim would have to work hard from his party while preparing to meet with Echocho whose ticket has been preserved by his party. In short, he (John Ibrahim) may be faced with formidable opponent although adjourned to be in loss of relevance.
It may be of benefits for Echocho to reconsider his ambitions in tune of what the people have desired him albeit the difficulty in betraying Yahaya Bello. Only when that happens will Kogi PDP be shake but as things currently stand, Engr. John Ibrahim seems the luckiest politician from Kogi east in 2019.
– Abdullahi Suleiman Otiwe writes from Kogi state
Email: asokogi@gmail.com
Phone: 08064188686
