Opinion: Yorubas, Buhari and 2019

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The mohawk hair styled Sowore has hit the media waves with his electrical energy. Street credibility is what works for Sowore who has been limping as an activist and a publisher.

In the streets, many would refer to his hair style as “Gallas”. The refined Gallas. I can bet with my balls that Sowore wouldn’t running that hairstyle to the polls if he wants to penetrate the richly religious Nigerian society up North and their sister Churchists with various interpretations of how “appearance” justifies the content of character. It is farce. However, it is a fracas in the Nigerian political space not to understand the religious, political and social-correctness lingo.

Sowore’s mohawk hair style is a symbolism. Something for the youths. At 47, if he goes by this, he would definitely be amassing the strength and followership of university students and their posh-speaking social media analysts.

To his credit, he has a future with Nigeria. But with the Nigerian students? Laughable. If you put ten students in one room, it is likely 9 of them have never registered for a Permanent Voters Card, PVC, or did, but never collected the card. So from the activist angle, students are easy to mine for followership, at least, for media capital language. But are they the real voters?

Let us talk 2019.

Between Sowore and Fela Durotoye, I would probably go with Sowore anyday even though most of his proclamations are too swift for believability. As for Durotoye, I don’t trust too many Motivational Experts, they are gifted with fine words. They understand competence. They understand changes. They understand principles. They understand many things they could help others move, but many of them only have speaking as their prowess. They sound nice and fine but mostly a sad tale if given real life test running. Fela is also very elitist.

 

Besides all these sides, both alternatives for the South West for 2023 would be better off any gerontological recommendation for Presidency. Old people in power ends with Buhari.

 

The Yorubas are also learning the art of political strategy, refusing to play the second fiddle anymore. Sowore and Fela have been pushed out to paint a transitional picture.

 

Don’t deceive yourself, the dou cannot win even a local government election as it stands based on political structure and the real voting population. They may still need to be driven by regionalism and political negotiations.

 

Can Sowore or Fela touch Buhari’s 12m votes up north without the Northern Political Power Block giving it to the South West?

 

In 2003, 2007, 2011, Buhari was consistent with this figure even when another Fulani, Musa Yar’adua churned out Maurice Iwu’s 24 million votes to defeat Buhari. It is a consistency that Buhari has his own structure built in CPC. It has nothing to do with his leadership output. Northerners understand loyalty. They do cult followership. There’s no democracy in thinking.

 

Why would the Yorubas prefer to make “noise” with Sowore and Fela in 2019? Obviously, to project a “mental alternative”. Something they would likely run on for 2023.

 

The political neophytes always think politics revolves around critical mass opinion or feelings all the time. The political realities of every nation differs.

 

Can the Yorubas allow the PDP or SDP to float the candidature of a Northern candidate to divide Buhari’s voting number, while Atiku or a Kwakwanso wins for an 8 year tenure when Buhari has only 4 more years to go before the Yorubas fly Presidency for another 8 years?

 

Political Leader of the West, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a regionalist. He is a neo-Awoist. He doesn’t believe in your Nigerianess. He believes in regional development just like Ahmadu Bello believes in regional control of power. The only unitary believing development founding leader Nigeria ever had was Zik. The spiral of 50s to 80s politicians we currently have modelled their political ideologies after most of Nigeria’s founding fathers.

 

Back to the gist.

 

Sowore would disrupt. Sowore would satisfy the expectations of “idealists” in 2019. Sowore would be the alternative to Buhari when it comes to cosmopolitan thinking. Sowore also knows he is playing a script.

 

Buhari is the leader that would retire the older generation in IBB, OBJ, TY, David Marks, etc.

 

2019 elections is not for the North, it would be Tinubu fighting for the Yorubas in 2023. Remember, the South South also has an ambition with Donald Duke and Nyesom Wike. The Yorubas are the ones under pressure. North Central Nigeria would be a battle ground, but North and South West goes to Buhari. Forget the social media activism.

 

 

– Promise Emmanuel (Kogi Rebel)

 

 


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