By Musa Bakare.
Kogi State’s political history is not linear; it is a curve shaped by trials, resistance, disruption, and adaptation. To understand where the state may be headed in 2027, we must first understand where it has been.
From the pre-2015 era through the 2023 elections and now on the threshold of another consequential political moment, Kogi’s trajectory tells a story rich in lessons, warnings, and possibilities.
Before 2015, politics in Kogi largely followed a predictable script. Power was anchored in the Eastern Senatorial District, sustained by elite bargains and district calculations that preserved imbalance rather than pursued bold rotational reform. Elections were held, governments formed, yet governance seldom challenged the status quo.
That period was defined by agitation and alignment between the Central and Western districts on fairness, equity and power rotation.
Development came in fragments, not as part of a coordinated vision. The once strategic partnership between the Central and Western districts for equity and fairness in power distribution now weakened, with the Central district now firmly holding power.
The lesson from that era is unmistakable: political stability without meaningful rotational reform breeds stagnation. Kogi endured those years, but it did not fully unlock its economic, institutional, or social potential.
The 2015 transition marked a decisive rupture. Power shifted from the East to the Central Senatorial District, ushering in a leadership style that unsettled old arrangements and challenged long-standing assumptions. The system was shaken, entrenched interests confronted, and governance adopted a different tone.
Yet this phase also revealed a deeper truth: rotation can catalyze change, but it is not a cure-all. Authority alone does not guarantee unity, and reform pursued without broad consensus can deepen divisions. The key takeaway is that rotational justice must be institutionalized and inclusive, ensuring equitable access to leadership among Kogi’s three senatorial districts.
By 2023, agitation over rotation intensified. Kogi East demanded the return of what it viewed as “lost power” after more than sixteen years, while Kogi West continued its struggle for even a bite. The election reflected a political environment shaped less by long term consequences than by slogans, less by transformative urgency than by a tolerance for entrenched mistrust and division.
This moment underscored a fundamental democratic truth maturity, comes when citizens prioritize institutional balance over emotional impulses. It also reaffirmed a troubling pattern, that legitimacy in governance is too often sustained more by rhetoric than by measurable performance.
As 2027 approaches, Kogi’s political terrain is again charged with expectation. The past offers clear lessons for the future:
Sustainable peace and progress demand fairness across all senatorial districts. For reasons of equity, justice, and moral balance, Kogi West Senatorial District that have never produced the state governor since it’s creation in 1991 has a compelling case to produce the next governor.
Prolonged exclusion carries both political and ethical costs.
The era of grand promises without delivery is fading. Citizens are increasingly discerning; credibility will be measured by results, not declarations.
Any serious political vision for 2027 must intentionally harness the energy, creativity, and aspirations of Kogi West.
The future must not be held hostage by personal rivalries or recycled antagonisms. Issue based politics must replace politics driven by division.
Political actors must remember that today’s strategies become tomorrow’s legacy. History will ultimately ask: who built bridges, and who widened fractures ?
The year 2027 should not be another experiment. It must represent the culmination of lessons learned: a moment when leadership is chosen not by impulse but by insight; not by division but by equity, competence, and vision.
The future of Kogi will depend on how honestly its leaders and citizens interpret their own history, and whether they possess the courage to rise above it.
– Musa Asiru Bakare, a foundational member of the APC and political analyst, writes from Lokoja, Kogi State.
