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As the elections draw nearer by the day, it has become too important and necessary for us to conduct a more critical review of the likely chances and the likely threats to the victory of our great party, the PDP in Kogi east senatorial elections.
As dynamic as this senatorial bid has turned into, a more closer look will enable us to unravel so many hidden intrigues and how such lapses might mar or make the party.
It will also help the party to reduce unnecessary competition from the opposition and also provide adequate answers to the several questions that the Kogi east electorates have already started asking.
Let us begin by looking at the grounds the party has lost out since the last governorship election,those who have been following the party well will agree with me that it is a 55% to 45% between the APC and the PDP and there is an 85% chance of reclaiming the state in the forth coming elections if the vital suggestions including the ones that will be highlighted in this article are considered and well interpreted.
After Sen. Nicholas Yahaya Ugbane ended his tenure as the senator representing Kogi east, Sen. Atai Aidoko emerged as the new senator representing the constituency in an election perceived by many to be rigged and heavily faulty.
This same thing occurred in the 2015 elections that brought back the same Sen. Atai Aidoko, and aside raising a lot of heavy protest across the constituency and in Abuja, the said election equally led to the lingering court case between the acclaimed winner of the election, Sen. Atai Aidoko and Rtd Air Marshal Alfa who if we are to go by the evidence he has been able to provide before the court actually won the primaries of the 2015 elections.
The inability of the court to resolve this case has succeeded in creating a lasting enmity between both members of the party and also instigate factions amongst the party members,party officials and even party delegates across the entire constituency.
It is also important to note here that party stalk holders who are the bedrock of the party across the constituency,the state and even at national level are also at lock horns either for supporting or not supporting the both mandates during the said primaries or during the court clashes.
These we all know is not healthy for our party,especially at a time like this when the party is working round the clock to redeem it’s lost glory and present to the electorates in and across Kogi east a more reformed image.
Upon the creation of Kogi state, Kogi East politics has been successfully built on the politics of zoning, through which it has been able to proffer solutions to the issue of “one – sided representation” and a more people oriented representation.
Distinguished politicians like late Dr Steven Makoji Achema, James Peter Ocholi (SAN), Prince Abubakar Audu and many others affirmed this thought and idea when they were alive.
Other stakeholders like former Governor Ibrahim Idris, former Gov. Idris Wada, former PDP national chairman Ahmodu Ali, former Senators Yahaya Ugbane and Alex Khadiri, just to mention but a few have shared similar thought to this healthy and most suitable idea.
And this has giving room for its practice since the state was created,the zoning and rotation order can be seen clearly bellow:
Dekina Federal Constituency:
-Ahmadu Adah Ali; 1979 – 1993 (7Years)
– Alex Usman Kadiri; 1999 – 2003 (4Years)
-Nicholas Yahaya Ugbane; 2003 – 2011 (8Years)
Ankpa Federal Constituency:
– Andrew Abogede; 1979 – 1983 (4Years)
– Atai Aidoko; 2011 – 2015 (4Years), 2015 – 2019(though court cases)
Idah Federal Constituency:
– Dangana Ocheja – 6 Months only.
Through this zoning, we are able to see that the Ankpa and Dekina federal constituency has provided more representatives than any since the creation of the state.
It is also clear that the present representative, Sen. Atai Aidoko, who has been in office for seven years comes from the same Axis and his predecessor. Sen. Nicholas Yahaya Ugbane is also from the same federal constituency.
The Idah federal constituency before and after Sen. Dangana Ocheja’s six months in office has not provided any senator in the constituency since 1979.
This is not just a breach of the same agreement that all the regions in the constituency has enjoyed, but an indirect deprivation of the people leaving in Idah Federal constituency the dividends of political zoning – which has also led to the little or no concentration on this axis or region compared to what the Dekina and Ankpa federal constituencies has been enjoying for so many decades now.
The Idah federal constituency is the nucleus of our party, the PDP, and we will be shooting our party on the leg if we continuously ignore them and in any way instigate through our actions that we have abandoned them.
Another interesting side of the zoning issue in Kogi east as it concern the party’s mandate is the obvious fact that the opposition is likely to come from the Dekina federal constituency, and the moment that is done the competition will become intense for any PDP mandate that emerges from this same federal constituency.
First, he or she will have to share votes from his own immediate local government and federal constituency, such mandate will have a directly and a likely aggressive confrontation between himself and the opposition, his supporters and that of the opposition, our party faithfuls and that of the opposition. Whichever way we look at it, it is not healthy for our party at a time like this that party is heavily working to attract lasting support in Kogi east and correct the previous lapses.
Other axis in the constituency like the Ankpa/Omala and Idah federal constituency will be forced to go with the opposition not only because they will consider the zoning treaty to have been dumped, but because it will come to their knowledge that in the next 16 years it will not get to their turn to produce a senator in the constituency. So, rather than wait for that long it is politically safe and comfortable to support an opposition who will be willing to work and also give power to their federal constituency in a maximum of 8 years.
If we are also to call a spade a spade and not a garden fork, it is important to look at what the incumbent senator has been able to do in the last seven years of his representation.
According to Audit report 14 July 2018 an approximate of 9.5 billion naira has been release for constituency projects in Kogi east from 2011 – 2017.
And like a social commentator noted in an article published on one of the dailies; “there are nothing to show for this funds that has been disburse except court injunctions and counter court injunctions”. His inability to deliver has become a household discussion in the constituency and with out bending words this electorates have lost confidence in him and will do the same thing on our party if his made the flag bearer in the forth coming senatorial election.
The incumbent senator through his shortsightedness, timid approach to issues of importance, no visible development and continuous court case has made the people tired of his representation, it has also made them weary of the mandate and making him the flag bearer of the party in the forth coming senatorial election is the same thing as adding more flames to the already consuming fire.
So in as much as the Kogi East PDP has all the political resources to override the opposition, it must be mindful not to give its mandate to some one who will tear apart the new found trust the constituency has began to develop for the party.
The party must be extremely careful not to reinstate a mandate that will perforate the support the people are eagerly warming up to give our party in the forth coming elections.
And to totally avert this eminent political catastrophe, the party must stretch it’s mandate to a newer hand, an individual who can redeem the image of the party both at national level, state level and equally at the constituency level.
It must rally round a mandate who will be visible enough in the chamber and be willing to uphold the ideas of the party at all times.
And most of all it must, give room for a mandate that comes from Idah federal constituency not only to meet with the lasting zoning order of the constituency, but to reduce unnecessary competition, ease political tension, address issues of factions across the party in the constituency, bringing concentration to the axis and prevent the likely rebellion that might erupt amongst party members and the electorates if the incumbent is given the mandate.
The PDP in Kogi east is in dire need of some one who can energise the party and attract the undivided loyalty of the electorates to the party and with the look of things giving the incumbent the mandate will not only weaken the party the more, but will go a longer way to affect the entirety of the support the party would ave gained in the state during the general elections.
The PDP in Kogi east must be careful not to repeat this self explosive mistake. The party is on the verge of getting it right and redeeming its image in the state and the mistake of giving the incumbent the mandate will destroy the party down to its root.
– Omachi Isaac Achor
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