Mallam Nasir El-Rufai recent defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has been greeted with mixed reactions. Some see it as a smart move, while others believe it is a big mistake that could make him politically irrelevant.
As a political scientist conversant with Nigeria’s political history, it is necessary to examine both the risks and opportunities his decision presents.
Yes, El-Rufai’s defection seems like a risky step because moving to a party with little grassroots support is like stepping into political isolation. Even when he was at his strongest as Kaduna State governor, APC struggled in the last presidential and national assembly elections. Unlike Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in Kano, who has a loyal following, El-Rufai does not have a strong political base, especially in Southern Kaduna.
His tough policies have also made him unpopular in some parts of the North and now that he is at odds with his successor and lacks control over Kaduna politics, his influence has weakened to some extent and If he does not have a clear plan, his defection might not lead anywhere.
This is the substance of the matter: if El-Rufai truly wants to challenge APC, it would be better for him to start working to unite the opposition. The opposition needs a strong coalition and Atiku Abubakar remains the only politician with the national presence and experience to take on Tinubu in 2027. However, Atiku cannot do it alone. He needs Mr. Peter Obi as his running mate to form a powerful North-South ticket.
The North has the numbers, while Obi has massive support in the South East and South South. Together, they could pose a serious challenge to Tinubu’s reelection.
Obviously, Tinubu’s grip on power is not as firm as it seems. Lagos, once his political stronghold, has a large Igbo population that could vote against him. The Middle Belt, suffering from insecurity and economic hardship, is losing faith in the APC.
In the North, where elections are won and lost, many people are frustrated with Tinubu’s policies and If Atiku and Obi had united in 2023, Tinubu might not have won.
At this point, the only meaningful role left for El-Rufai is to turn the North against Tinubu because APC governors in the North will struggle to convince their people to vote for a party that has made life or making life harder for them.
If El-Rufai wants revenge, his best option is to mobilize the North against APC. However, if he does not join forces with a stronger coalition his defection will not change anything.
One key lesson here is that APC cannot afford to ignore powerful figures like El-Rufai or even Former Governor Alhaji Yahaya Bello of Kogi State. If Bello also feels sidelined and decides to leave APC, the party would lose Kogi 100 %. Kano remains under Kwankwaso’s control because of his deep grassroots influence, while Kaduna is now open for a political battle between El-Rufai and Senator Uba Sani .
That being said, dismissing El-Rufai would be a mistake. He is a strategic politician who has a record of delivering results. If his defection is part of a long term political strategy, then APC has reason to be worried.
President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu must act fast to address the growing crisis in the APC. The party is already facing divisions and more defections could weaken it further. If he fails to reconcile with key figures, APC’s hold on power could crumble before the 2027 elections.
So, is El-Rufai’s defection a mistake or a smart move? The answer depends on what he does NEXT. If he builds a strong coalition and regains influence in the North, he could become a major force in 2027. But if he is simply acting out of frustration, he may find himself politically irrelevant in the years to come.
– Abdulkadir Bin ABDULMALIK
Kogi State, NIGERIA
