As the 2012 governorship election in Kogi State draws nearer, opposition parties in the state appear battle ready to take on the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). They have said repeatedly that they will take over the state. To actualize this, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) decided to ‘merge’ with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), including Fresh Democratic Party in order to change the political equation of the state.
Political observers in the state are of the view that the ANPP which has been the main opposition party before the emergence of the ACN is no longer strong and this may have informed the decision of Prince Abubakar Audu to dump the party for ACN, alongside his followers to build a formidable opposition.
Analysts say the mammoth crowd that witnessed Audu’s decamping at the Lokoja township stadium, had sent a message to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the state that it has to double its effort if it wants to retain the state.
But the question on the lips of observers as the state prepares for the governorship and local government elections next year is whether the supposed merger between the ACN and ANPP is viable enough to flush out PDP from the Lord Guard House.
Political pundits in the state hold different opinions on this issue. Some believe that with the merger, there is going to be a viable opposition that will give the PDP tough time while others believe that the PDP has established its dominance in the state’s political space as such it would be difficult to unseat the party from government.
Though those who remained in the ANPP recently denied that there was a merger with the ACN, political observers in the state believe that Audu defines ANPP in Kogi State and his exit means that the party is also dead in the state.
The PDP has maintained firm grip on the state since 2003 when Governor Ibrahim Idris defeated Audu in a very keenly contested election. Audu had just finished his first term and was gunning for second and final term. In 2007, Audu also took another shot at the governorship seat but lost woefully. As it is at the moment, PDP controls all the local governments in the state and had won 24 state House of Assembly seats, three senators, and about four House of Representatives seats.
In the April general elections, the opposition parties only managed to win four seats in the state House Assembly and two seats in the House of Representatives.
PDP lost the state House of Assembly seats in Ijumu, Yagba East, Mopa Muro to ANPP while ACN also picked the Yagba West State House of Assembly and the Yagba Federal Constituency and Lokoja -Kotonkarfe federal constituency seats due to unresolved skirmishes within PDP.
With the situation on ground, some analysts believe it would be difficult to change the political equation of the state while others believe that with Prince Abubakar squaring up with the ACN, the opposition will form a formidable force that can wrestle power from the ruling party.
One of such persons was the ACN chairman, Alhaji Hadi Ametu who believes that Prince Abubakar Audu is a big catch for his party in its quest to take over the mantle of leadership in the state.
He said that the strength of ACN in Kogi State was what informed the former governor’s decision to join the party. “He knows that ACN is the only strong party that can outdo the PDP in the state and with him we hope to chase the PDP out of the Lugard House,” he said.
During the fusion of the defecting politicians, Prince Abubakar Audu, ANPP governorship candidate in the last general elections said that he dumped the ANPP because the party’s ship is capsizing.
“Today begins the realization of our dream that has been nurtured for many years. ANPP which I am a founding member is having epileptic problems, taking a step forward and nine steps backward; from nine states to three now. I feel that is not good enough for our people. We want the future of our children and grandchildren to be secured,” he said.
According to him, the ‘merger’ is the beginning of the process of massive take-over from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which he described as non-performing government.
However, observers believe that the ACN as a party may also have issues to contend with before they can effectively face the PDP during the forthcoming governorship election.
The party had conducted primary election and elected Prof. Yusuf Obaje as its governorship candidate before the court ruled that Governor Idris’ tenure was not over until 2012. And now, it is widely believed that Audu’s defection to the ACN is also to actualise his governorship ambition on the platform of the party. It remains to be seen how the party would resolve the issue.
But Alhaji Hadi Ametu dismissed suggestions that there is trouble here. He said the ACN is not like PDP that is a one-man show. “ACN is a democratic and progressive party. We had a candidate for the botched election, so whether we are going to have a primary or not, we would wait for directives from the National Secretariat”, he said.
On its part, PDP also has some issues to contend with ahead of the election. The party’s structure in the state is divided against itself. Some party chairmen were suspended for anti-party activities during the last national and state Assembly elections. Also recently, some members from PDP dominated areas of the state held protests following speculations that council chairmen would get extension instead of conducting election.
These internal problems are in addition to the growing anxiety over agitation for zoning or rotation of the office of the governor by party members from Kogi Central and Kogi West senatorial zones. Analysts say if not well handled, the zoning issue is capable of tearing the PDP further apart and boosting the chances of the opposition parties which for now are not really concerned about which of the senatorial districts should produce the governor. Their principal target for now is to dethrone the PDP from Lord Luguard House.
The general belief among pro-zoning members of the party is that the Eastern Senatorial District has produced two elected governors of the state since 1999, therefore power should move to either the Central or Western zones to ensure fairness and equity. But the Legal Adviser to the PDP, Umaru Muhammed, dismissed suggestion that that is a serious issue for the party, saying that PDP has not regarded any group as minority and has always ensured a level playing field to all members of the party from the three districts.
According to him, PDP has a very strong political structure from the grassroots level to the state level and these structures will make it difficult for any opposition party to defeat PDP in the next election.
“The PDP led government has touched the lives of the citizens of the state at the grassroots so they cannot abandon us for the opposition party. There is no serious opposition to us in Kogi for now,” he said
