Playing politics in Nigeria has generally been perceived as dirty game and this general notion is not because of the involvement of thugs nor resolve of an average politician to always consult spiritual world to get power for the election but our inability to tell ourselves the truth or hide truth even when the truth is obvious makes it a dirty game.
Our inability to speak the truth when the situation demands is usually one of the reasons why our brightest show little or no interest in politics. Even those that show interest could not make it at the party primary election and those that managed were not successful at the general election because of lack of truth in us.
Our inability to tell ourselves the truth is usually the bane why we atimes get it wrong in decision making. Furthermore, our inability to speak the truth cohesively do send our brightest individuals to their early political retirement even at their promising youthful age.
Going by this, we have had an instance when an enterprising and hardworking Youths doing wonderfully well in their chosen career somewhere were called home to seek for political position on wrong calculation and this indecision of ours later turn out to be a bad omen for the Candidate at and after the general election. The person who was asked to contest on the wrong assumption did in most case not only lose his or her hard-earned money for the vested interest, political jobbers and sycophants but in some cases lost his or her job as those in government payrolls have to resign to contest for an election.
People in this category had to bit their teeths as they find it difficult to recover most especially when they lost out in the elections. For the self-employed once, many of them do find it difficult to bounce up in life as large chunk of their business running funds had gone into politicking with the utmost assurance that he or she will win at the election. Following the instance I have pointed out above, many of our brightest individuals who contest at the election on wrong assumption and calculation got bankrupted after the election.
In view of the narration I have given a glimpse picture off above, I consider it necessary to give ABC analysis of Madam Natasha Akpoti, a senatorial candidate of Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the forthcoming general election to show to the public on how far she will go on the contest. I will give a vivid picture to the public if she is going for mission of possibility or not.
Madam Natasha Akpoti picked my interest in view of her campaign that have totally dominated social media platform and supporters telling all that she is the best among equal. To give little background about Natasha, she is an Ajaokuta steel company resuscitation advocacte. Natasha of a recent time have been traversing all corners of Nigeria appearing in media programs educating Nigerians the needs to get Ajaokuta steel company working. For this singular courage of her to openly talk on no-go-area as perceived by some class of people, She was admired by many for her doggedness despite insult, false accusation and character assassination from different quarters aimed at discouraging her. More still, of a recent, the same Natasha throw in towel to contest for the senatorial seat in Kogi central. As I talk on her contest, I must therefore emphasize to my readers that it is never a crime for an activist to seek for political position or get elected to represent the people but in her case now, she is going into an impossible mission. My take is not because she is not qualify or credible enough to seek for the senatorial seat but she is pursuing her political mission on a very wrong road.
Aside the fact that she chose an unpopular party, a party with no pronounced Ward, local government and state party structures in Kogi state, the other is that the current political situation in Nigeria and Kogi central in particular is not favourable to her now unless we want to deceive ourselves.
One, she is contesting in a senatorial district with the incumbent Governor of Kogi State and this singular factor will make it tasking for her to win. I am saying this because no matter how bad or poorly performed some people might regard Governor Bello administration in Kogi State, he will try to prove his worth to Nigerians in the next general election that his party is fully in charge in Kogi State and he will make this happen by delivering his State and his senatorial district election for APC.
Money factor will equally come to play if that will be the only option for Bello to achieve this and I doubt if Natasha can match Governor Bello and the ruling Party (APC) cash for cash to woo voters for their votes. We should therefore not pretend over this that money factor will not influence the next election. It would because many people in the time past had voted for political office holders in hunger with a promise that when they get there, they shall ripe the dividend which will come in form of open jobs for all and better life for the generality of the populace. Alas, what the electorates get today is disappointment, more hunger, deteriorating standard of living, advance corruption which the culprit are shed in most cases. Today, people can not point to their chest what they have gained for their patriotism in voting without money inducement.
On this bad experience by the electorates, it will be a rhetorics for an aspiring leaders to convince the electorates to vote without money inducement saying better days ahead if elected. This is where Natasha and her supporters will get it wrong in her calculation that the electorates will vote for her on the ground of what she can offer and not money. Though, some will still get convinced and vote for Natasha but bet me, she can not get more than 1000 votes by this calculation. I am not a prophet of doom but speaking out of experience. Even her current supporters will sell her when they see cash, ego and dollars from the popular party who have money to share. Her very party agent at the election day will shortchange her too at the polling boot by looking at the other way round when the popular party are manipulating the whole process and giving out money.
Aside money factor, the senatorial and President election will hold the same day, how will an average illiterates in Kogi central differentiate that Natasha party is different from President Buhari. There is no doubt that many people in Kogi central will cast their vote in support of President Buhari and in the course of doing this, some Natasha earlier supporters will mistakenly vote for APC for the two positions. To assume that this will not happen is tantamount to shying away from the truth. There will be words of war by APC and SPD party agent. If an illiterate voters said Buhari and Natasha, the radical APC agent will manipulate the illiterate voters to vote for APC in all.
Another factor that will work against Natasha is the town and area factor. APC senatorial Candidate and Governor Bello hails from Okene local government with the highest Voter registered in Kogi. Okene people will never turn down Governor Bello as his party shall win gallantly there. This will not be measured up to what Natasha’s party with no visible party structure in Okehi local government will get. Let me reinstate again that many Ihima people will not vote Natasha because of their personal political interests. The major votes will be divided by PDP and APC who have every chances to win presidential election. An average voters in Ihima will consider it as a waste to vote for SDP. Aside this, even the clan people where Natasha hails from in Ihima will vote against her. The voting against Natasha will be due to clan interest as politics is all about interest.
To point out to my reader on what will crops up this, few months ago Governor Bello elevated Obobanyi of Ihima to first class chief status. The emani people will certainly not be ungrateful by voting against the anointed candidate of Governor Bello, the APC candidate. Larger people of Emani clan will shun Natasha and vote APC and leave their daughter to stand alone. Politicians in Ihima who are eyeing political appointment in the next political dispensation would not want to waste their votes by voting Natasha as if they do, such will jeopardize their political personal interest.
I know many people will counter me that Natasha’s humanitarian works over the years for the indigent people of Kogi central will make many to vote her. Such will never work. Let me educate people again by giving a practical example. The present Senator from Kogi central before his voyage into politics had done tremendously well in empowering the people. He even dug boreholes in all the local governments in kogi central. When he sought for election, he lost. He did not only loss his first election but second and third and if not that legal lacuna in 2017 that banished APC candidate from contesting again in the re-scheduled election in Kogi central which made Ogembe to coast home victory, Ogembe’s dream of becoming a Senator would have been a mirage despite his large cult followers from all local governments in Kogi central. In comparison, Natasha can not boast of cult followers Ogbembe had had and currently has unless we want to deceive ourselves. This is why Natasha’s dream of becoming a senator is an unrealiable dream in 2019 as politics goes beyond Ajaokuta steel company completion activism.
If there is anyone who can dream such that protest votes from the ruling party will make him win, it should be the senatorial candidate of PDP whose party has large number of followers and not SPD. I saying this because i have heard people saying that late Senator Salami of UPN won and that his party was not popular then. Thus, that instance can not happen in this political scenario. SPD is not a match to APC and PDP and the assumption of Natasha winning is just an imagery dream.
Having given a highlight on the shape Kogi central senatorial election shall take, I have a few advise for Natasha. I am not in anyway disputing the fact that she can not give us responsive representation if given the mandate but we need to face reality. I must point out to her that all of us can not be senator at the same time and on this note i rather advise her to reach out to the current kogi central senatorial district occupant to table some of his good ideas for possible motion in the house as if she wants to wait to win before doing the needful, it will amount to building castle in the air.
In short, those who advised her to dump APC in the first place to seek senatorial seat in an inconsequential party like SPD are her worst enemies. They ill advised her and want Natasha to waste her money, get bankrupt and then go for her early political retirement. They wrongly miscalculated and it is tactical ploy of this ill-motivated individuals to make her waste her hard earned money.
The right thing would have been: contesting under APC even though she lose at the party primary. She should have still stayed in APC and work for Governor Bello and President Buhari for the sake of being considered for political appointment in the next political dispensation, then on getting appointment use that to build her political structure and consolidate on her current support for any elective position in 2023.
As this was not the case, I have every reasons to say that she has misfired and got it all wrong. I am not a deceiver but truth advocate. She should therefore trend softly on her spending as i am sensing that her present sycophants who are busy insulting everyone on Facebook who makes an observation against her campaign are looking for a way to milk her dry financially.
They want to render Natasha bankrupt by not telling her the truth on political issues now. I will not mince words in saying that those who are shouting for her are not doing so on a sincerity note. Many of them who reside out of Kogi state will not come home to vote that day and every of their support will end on Facebook platform which will not translate to success at the end of the day. This will then amounts to Natasha current struggle as exercises in futility.
– Shaibu Stephen Ojate, a Journalist from Ihima, writes from Abuja. 09075716236
