Campaign activities ahead of the November 11th Kogi Election have since begun and the political landscape grows increasingly tense. Except to feign ignorance and press on a modicum of hope, the likely winner of that election is getting noticeable. The race’s frontrunner is emerging, with three major contenders among the 18 candidates published by INEC for the election – Dino Melaye of the PDP, Ahmed Ododo of the APC, and Murtala Yakubu Ajaka of the SDP. These individuals, notable for their popularity and extensive fanbases, will likely dominate the governorship race.
A significant influence on the election’s outcome is tribal affiliations; that is, the quest to identify with a candidate on the basis of tribe, not minding other key determinants. The three prominent candidates represent the major tribes in Kogi State, illustrating the deep-seated divisions along our Senatorial districts. However, it is probable that the election’s outcome will transcend the issue of tribal affiliations, which seems to be the main focus of Ajaka’s campaign.
Ajaka’s campaign gained momentum following the disappointment felt by some individuals from the Eastern district who perceived themselves as being marginalized after no one from their district was able to secure the ticket of any major political party. He has since then garnered massive support from his kinsmen, including those who previously supported either the PDP or APC. The Igala Cultural Development Association, ICDA, the Igala apex socio-cultural body has since endorsed Ajaka as the candidate for Kogi East, in realization of their tribal agenda.
The other candidate whose tribalistic tendency is obvious is the candidate of the APC, Ahmed Usman Ododo who’s from the same district with the incumbent governor, Yahaya Bello. The governor is not just making frantic efforts to ensure that his successor comes from his district, he narrowed it down to his Local government. There’s no better indicator to show that Ododo’s candidacy is etched on a tribal agenda than this reality. Unlike Ajaka, Ododo is leveraging the support of the governor and his political party to gain popularity across both the Eastern and Western districts. Even though his stronghold is in the Central district, his influence can be seen in other districts as well.
The candidate who portrays a unifying figure among the deeply polarized, mutually suspicious ethnic groups is Dino Melaye, the candidate of the PDP. Capitalizing on the perceived mismanagement of Governor Yahaya Bello’s administration, Melaye puts forth his candidacy as a beacon of hope. He is offering himself as the light that will extinguish the darkness being observed in the state. However, for some unknown reasons, Dino hasn’t been able to break even into the hearts of the electorate. In his hometown, key politicians are leaving his party, and remaining supporters show lukewarm enthusiasm for his campaign. Given today’s metrics, he’s likely the least accepted of the three major candidates.
Going by the current political climate, it’s likely that APC will secure most of the votes from Kogi Central, PDP from Kogi West, and SDP from Kogi East. The crucial factor will be the candidates’ ability to secure votes from outside their strongholds, with APC seemingly poised to attract more votes from the other regions than its rivals are likely to receive from Kogi Central.
Kogi East, with the largest number of voters, may be faced with challenges due to potential election violence. There are reports of political unrest, with the APC Campaign Council accusing the opposition SDP of inciting these incidents. Recall that there was a clash between the two parties about 2 months ago, where both parties traded blames. The tension is gradually building, and this may impact the number of voters who turn up at the polls.
For instance, during the 2019 election, Dekina Local Government had the highest number of registered voters with 151,753 individuals, but only about 30,000 of those individuals turned up to vote. Comparatively, Okene Local Government, with 129,681 registered voters, polled about 113,000 votes in the same election. In addition to other factors, reported incidents of intimidation, coercion, vote buying, and other electoral malpractices in the district may have contributed to the low turnout. To prevent this, Kogi East must conduct themselves in a calm and peaceful manner and avoid any actions that could lead to a breakdown of law and order.
Interestingly, The 2023 election has seen noticeable improvements in our electoral management, making it harder to manipulate votes undetected. However, it’s crucial that the electoral umpire, the security agencies and all other authorities provide a fair and balanced platform for all candidates. The winner should secure their victory convincingly, reflecting the will of the people.
– Alabi John Ozovehe
Ochankiri 1 of Ebiraland.
