By Abdulkarim Abdulmalik
The recently announced two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is, within the ambit of diplomatic standard, less a peace agreement and more a strategic pause. It is a fragile intermission in a conflict that has already reshaped the geopolitical temperature of the Middle East.
Although the development is being celebrated in some quarters as a “step back from the brink,” yet beneath the cautious optimism lies a more unsettling reality: this ceasefire is unlikely to hold.
Far from being pessimistic, the reasons for this informed position are not far-fetched. They are embedded in the very DNA of the agreement itself: its rushed timing, its conditional structure, its competing narratives, and the unresolved tensions simmering across the region.
A Deal Born Out of Pressure, Not Trust
It is crystal clear that this ceasefire was not the product of mutual trust or sustained diplomacy. It emerged under extreme pressure. The United States had issued a stark ultimatum, threatening devastating attacks if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran remained defiant. And the US appeared to have hit its Witt’s end following series of threats and unilateral ultimatums drumming on Iran’s death ears.
The result was an American-prompted last-minute agreement brokered hurriedly, reportedly with external mediation anchored by Pakistan.
Such agreements, forged in the shadow of imminent escalation tend to be stack; lacking diplomatic durability. The celebrated agreements are, but a product of tactical retreats, not strategic reconciliations. When parties come to the table to avoid immediate catastrophe rather than to resolve underlying grievances, the outcome is predictably temporary.
Indeed, even as the ink dried on the ceasefire, both sides were already framing it as a victory. But the world knows who’s closer to victory goal post!
However, this is a classic warning sign to the looming danger. When adversaries walk away from a deal believing they have “won,” it usually means they have not agreed on what the deal actually entails.
Contradictions and Competing Narratives
The Irish Times in its reports noted that the ceasefire is riddled with contradictions as Washington portrays it as a containment success, while Tehran views it as a concession extracted through resilience.
In the same vein, the Washington Post wrote that it becomes more dangerously if there was no shared interpretation of key terms.
According to its report, Iran insists on maintaining control and even imposing conditions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States expects free and secure passage.
This ambiguity is not a minor diplomatic inconvenience. It is a structural fault line.
When expectations diverge so fundamentally, violations become almost inevitable, whether intentional or accidental.
The Washington Post further in its report, noted that already, accusations of breaches are emerging within days of the agreement. Iran has alleged violations involving U.S. surveillance and continued Israeli military operations, while Israel insists its actions fall outside the ceasefire’s scope.
Thus, a ceasefire that cannot even define its own boundaries is a ceasefire in name only.
The Israel Factor: A Parallel War Undermining Peace
Perhaps the most glaring weakness of the agreement is that it does not fully encompass all actors in the conflict. The Guardian Newspapers reported that Israel’s ongoing military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue unabated, creating a parallel battlefield that threatens to drag the U.S. and Iran back into direct confrontation.
This is not a peripheral issue; it is central. Iran does not view the conflict in isolation. Its strategic posture is deeply tied to its regional alliances, particularly with Hezbollah. As long as fighting continues in Lebanon, Tehran will see little incentive to fully honor a ceasefire with Washington.
In essence, the agreement attempts to freeze one front while others remain active. History shows that such selective ceasefire agreements rarely succeed. Conflict, like fire, spreads through the paths left unguarded.
The Two-Week Timeline: Diplomacy or Delay?
The very duration of the ceasefire – two weeks – raises serious questions. It is too short to negotiate a comprehensive peace settlement. It is, however, long enough for both sides to regroup militarily and politically for a continued hostility.
This suggests the ceasefire may be less about peace and more about repositioning. For the United States, it offers time to stabilize global markets and reassess military options. For Iran, it provides breathing space to consolidate internal support and reinforce strategic assets.
New York Post reported that markets have already reacted to the announcement, with oil prices plunging sharply and stock markets surging. Markets are often driven by hope, not reality. But meanwhile, the underlying tensions that triggered the conflict remain unresolved.
To this end, a two-week ceasefire would definitely not eliminate those tensions. It merely postpones their eruption.
Deep-Rooted Mistrust
The Elephant in the room is the deep-rooted mistrust. It is arguable that the most decisive factor working against the ceasefire is the deep and enduring mistrust between the two countries. And this is not a recent development. It is the product of decades of hostility, sanctions, proxy conflicts, and ideological rivalry.
The Guardian reports indicated that from within Iran there is widespread scepticism about the US intentions as several citizens and officials openly expressed doubt that the ceasefire would hold.
This mistrust is mutual. Washington remains deeply suspicious of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence. Tehran, in turn, sees Washington actions as part of a broader strategy of containment and regime pressure.
In such an environment fraught with strong suspesion, minor incidents could escalate rapidly. A drone sighting, a naval encounter, or a misinterpreted military movement could unravel the entire agreement within hours.
Unresolved Core Issues
The ceasefire has not addressed the core disputes driving the conflict. Questions surrounding Iran’s uranium enrichment, sanctions, regional influence, and military presence which, according to he Washington Post, remain unresolved.
These are not peripheral issues. They are the heart of the crisis. Thus, without meaningful progress on these critical issues, any ceasefire is merely a temporary bandage on a deep wound.
Diplomacy requires more than a pause in hostilities; it requires a framework for addressing grievances. That framework is conspicuously absent here.
A Pause, Not Peace
The two-week ceasefire is not a predicate to peace. Rather, it is a recalibration. That is the truth!
Both sides are testing the waters, gauging international reactions, and preparing for what comes next.
European leaders have, according to Reuters, welcomed the ceasefire but they have also emphasized the need for a “lasting negotiated settlement,” adding that it reflected an understanding that the agreement, in its current form, remain insufficient. The ceasefire is a necessary step; but it is not a solution.
The Illusion of Stability
It is tempting to celebrate any pause in violence as progress. And indeed, for civilians caught in the crossfire, even a temporary reprieve is invaluable. But the absence of immediate conflict should not be confused with the presence of peace.
The two-week ceasefire rests on shaky foundations: coercion rather than consensus, ambiguity rather than clarity, and mistrust rather than cooperation.
Until these underlying issues are addressed, albeit quickly, the ceasefire would likely collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.
In geopolitics, as in life, unresolved tensions do not disappear. They wait. And when they return, they often do so with greater force.
– Abdulkarim Abdulmalik, Abuja-based journalist, author publisher and Chairman Governing Board of Guild of Interfaith Media Practitioners Nigeria (GIMP-Nigeria).
