Why is membership a weapon ?
Defection as strategy not ideology ,cross carpeting is routine, politicians switch from APC, PDP, LP, and NNPP based on ticket security not manifestos
Since 1999 every election cycle sees 15-25% of National Assembly members defect before primaries this is because parties are weak institutions ,powers reside in structures like they Governors,Godfathers and money networks so members follow the structures not the logo
Ward level
Membership register
Who ever controls the register controls delegates selection for primaries ,that’s why you see midnight raids on party Secretariat , duplicates registers and court battles over authentic lists
Zoning builds up with inec’s continuous voter registration , parties are in fierce drives to swell register not for grassroot growth but to flood delegates pools ahead of 2027 primaries
Zoning and consensus
Zoning routes offices by region / ethnicity to manage elites competition but it’s often breached when a strong candidate emerges which result in aggrieved members blocs and defect to form third force
Consensus candidacy which is an elite pact to avoid expensive primaries but it backfires when excluded aspirants fund a break way actions or form new parties
In conclusion
Lesson for Nigerian
Nigeria political parties do not win elections rather it is a coalition of individuals that do
Membership register registers are battlefields not communities
Recommendations
Until parties develop real ideology, funding transparency and members – driven primaries, deflection will remain the main tool for power struggle.
– Benjamin Ibrahim writes from Lokoja, Kogi state.
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