The battle for 2027 has already begun in Kogi State, and it is not merely about who becomes governor or who secures a Senate seat. It is about memory. It is about arithmetic. It is about grievance. Across town halls in Lokoja and quiet consultations stretching from Okene to Kabba, one refrain echoes with rising urgency: “It is our turn.” Yet beneath that insistence lies a harder, more uncomfortable question now circulating in political circles: after years of strained relationships, would other ethnic blocs permit Igala arrowheads to fly again?
That question is not rhetorical. It reflects accumulated distrust. Many outside Kogi East privately ask whether past political dominance was exercised with fairness or with disregard. They recall appointments, resource allocation patterns, and the tone of past leadership. Politics has a long memory. When power rotates unevenly, resentment becomes sediment. And sediment, if not cleared, can block the river of cooperation.
The zoning debate among Kogi West, Kogi Central and Kogi East therefore carries more than procedural importance. It carries emotional charge. The logic of rotation is designed to prevent perpetual exclusion, to calm fears in plural societies, and to institutionalize balance. But balance is not achieved by proclamation. It is earned through conduct. If a region seeks the return of executive power, it must also confront the historical perception that accompanied its earlier tenure.
In that sense, 2027 is not only about geography; it is about reconciliation. Power rotation without relational repair is like rebuilding a house on cracked pillars. The structure may stand temporarily, but pressure will expose its fractures. If Igala political actors hope to persuade others that the time has come again, they must demonstrate that the politics of tomorrow will differ from the politics of yesterday.
Complicating the equation is the internal fragmentation within the All Progressives Congress in Kogi. The ruling party resembles a house divided into competing courtyards. Some align openly with James Abiodun Faleke, calculating federal reach and legislative leverage. Others rally behind Ahmed Usman Ododo, arguing continuity and consolidation. Another bloc remains loyal to Yahaya Bello, whose influence still casts a long political shadow across the state.
This division is not cosmetic. It alters the zoning calculus. When a dominant party is internally cohesive, it can negotiate rotation with clarity. When it fractures into personality-driven camps, zoning becomes secondary to factional survival. The debate shifts from “Which district?” to “Which camp?” In such circumstances, equity risks being subordinated to internal power struggles.
The governorship contest and Senate ambitions are therefore unfolding on two intertwined chessboards. On one board lies inter-regional negotiation — West, Central and East measuring their historical claims. On the other lies intra-party rivalry — aspirants maneuvering within APC’s layered hierarchy. Federal endorsements, strategic appointments and quiet Abuja alignments add further complexity. What appears locally as a zoning argument may, in reality, be influenced by national party arithmetic.
For many observers, the most delicate variable is trust. Can historical grievances be addressed through credible commitments? Can former political strongholds convincingly signal a new era of inclusivity? Democracy, after all, is not merely about rotation of offices; it is about rotation of goodwill. Without that, zoning becomes a ceremonial exchange devoid of healing.
The metaphor of the tripod remains instructive. Kogi’s three senatorial districts form the legs of a common stool. If one leg seeks height without strengthening the others, the stool will wobble. Yet strength requires more than alternating occupancy of Lugard House in Lokoja. It demands equitable infrastructure, inclusive appointments, and transparent governance. Representation without shared development is symbolic victory without structural change.
Younger voters are increasingly skeptical of elite pacts negotiated behind closed doors. To them, the politics of “turn by turn” must be matched by competence, transparency and measurable outcomes. They are less persuaded by ethnic entitlement and more persuaded by performance metrics — roads built, schools funded, security stabilized, jobs created. In their calculus, merit is not the enemy of equity; it is its reinforcement.
Still, dismissing rotation outright would ignore the realities of Nigeria’s plural political environment. Informal zoning arrangements have historically functioned as shock absorbers in diverse settings. The danger lies not in the principle itself but in its manipulation. When invoked selectively or weaponized against rivals, zoning transforms from stabilizer to accelerant.
Thus, the 2027 conversation in Kogi is layered. It is about whether other ethnic blocs will trust Igala leadership again. It is about whether APC’s internal divisions will crystallize into consensus or collapse into further fragmentation. It is about whether federal influence will harmonize or complicate local negotiations. Above all, it is about whether political actors can convert memory into maturity.
Kogi stands at a consequential threshold. One path reduces rotation to arithmetic and rivalry. Another path integrates equity with institutional reform and relational repair. If leaders choose the latter, rotation may serve as remedy — a disciplined mechanism for shared ownership. If they choose the former, 2027 will not be a healing cycle but a fresh battlefield drawn along old fault lines.
The stakes extend beyond one election cycle. They concern whether Kogi’s democracy can evolve from personality-driven contests to principle-driven governance. Arrowheads may be sharpened, alliances forged, and endorsements announced. But in the end, legitimacy will not be secured by zone or faction alone. It will be secured by trust rebuilt, fairness demonstrated and institutions strengthened.
– Inah Boniface Ocholi writes from Ayah – Igalamela/Odolu LGA, Kogi state.
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