By Pastor Stanley Ajileye.
My dear brothers and sisters of Okun land,
This is the fourth in my Open Letter series. The first was a personal appeal to His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, urging him to be favourably disposed to the legitimate aspiration of the good people of Kogi State for Hon. James Abiodun Faleke to contest the 2027 gubernatorial election.
The second letter was addressed to Hon. Faleke himself, a gentle nudge, but firm enough, reminding him that the loud and persistent call on him is nothing short of a call to duty. History, as we know, is a very strict examiner, it marks scripts without mercy.
The third letter was directed to His Excellency, Governor Usman Ododo. It was a plea, sincere and patriotic, that he should, in the spirit of fairness and equity, consider refraining from a second term ambition. I argued that such a sacrifice, rare as it may sound in our political climate, would engrave his name in gold, not only in Kogi State but across Nigeria.
This fourth letter, and possibly not the last, is a frank, heart to heart discussion with fellow sons and daughters of Okun land.
Let me be clear from the outset, this letter is addressed to the conscience of true Okun sons and daughters, those in whose veins genuine Okun blood flows. It is not addressed to wolves in sheep clothing, those who, for the sake of political crumbs, can conveniently call a hen auntie and a goat uncle, provided meat is on the menu.
Over the last few weeks, I have read, heard, and even received direct calls from some supposedly enlightened Okun sons and daughters canvassing the idea that Kogi West should wait patiently until 2031 before aspiring to the governorship of Kogi State. Some have dressed it up as wisdom, others have sold it as strategic patience, the popular patient dog gets the fattest bone philosophy.
With all due respect, this line of thinking is not just annoying, it is nauseating, especially when it comes from people who should know better. A patient dog in Kogi politics often ends up with no bone at all, not even the smell of soup.
Since the creation of Kogi State in 1991, Okun people, and by extension Kogi West, have largely remained spectators in the serious business of governing the state. Our predicament is not only rooted in demographics, where we are clearly disadvantaged, but also in other critical factors such as federal influence and the raw, uncomfortable reality of election manipulation.
Access to Lugard House, whether we like it or not, has historically rested on three pillars,
Demographic advantage
Federal influence
The power of incumbency, including rigging
Demographically, Kogi East controls about 45 percent of the population, while Kogi West and Kogi Central together account for roughly 55 percent. On paper, no single senatorial district can win the governorship alone. In practice, however, Kogi East has always enjoyed a structural advantage, and this largely explains why the Igala held sway from 1991 until the emergence of Alhaji Yahaya Bello.
The emergence of Bello introduced a new and very instructive dimension. Many called it an act of God. I disagree. To me, it was the unmistakable interplay of federal might.
Hon. James Abiodun Faleke, as the constitutionally recognised running mate to the late Prince Abubakar Audu, was clearly positioned to inherit the mandate they jointly earned. What changed that script was not divine intervention but federal power.
As for rigging, that weapon lies almost exclusively in the hands of the incumbent.
Now let us be honest with ourselves. Kogi West does not have the numbers to muscle its way into Lugard House. We do not control federal structures, and we certainly do not control the machinery of rigging.
The only viable pathway for an Okun person to become governor under the Kogi equation is through federal influence.
That is the element that has consistently eluded us. It is also the same reason Faleke was replaced with Bello.
Today, however, something has changed.
Providence, or if you prefer, political timing, has smiled on Okun land. Under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Kogi West is uniquely positioned, especially if Hon. James Abiodun Faleke is in the race. This opportunity is rare. It is precious. And let me be blunt, it is not transferable to 2031.
By 2031, President Tinubu will no longer be in office. The federal advantage we now have will evaporate like morning dew. Anyone selling you a 2031 agenda is either grossly ignorant of political reality or deliberately working against Okun interest.
This is why I struggle to understand any Okun son or daughter preaching the gospel of 2031. I honestly do not expect anyone with genuine Okun blood flowing in his or her veins to subscribe to such logic.
In fact, permit me a little humour, advocating 2031 for Okun is a stronger proof of questionable paternity than a DNA test.
Let us stop deceiving ourselves. The loudest advocates of 2031 are not friends of Okun land. They are enemies of Kogi West, smiling enemies, yes, but enemies all the same. And like any sensible community, we must begin to identify them clearly, remember their faces, and treat their advice with the caution it deserves.
This is our moment. Miss it, and history will not forgive us. Opportunities in politics do not knock twice, and when they do, they rarely wait.
Yours sincerely,
Pastor Stanley Ajileye
