The 11th August 2018, bye election held to fill the vacant seat for Lokoja and Kogi Federal Constituency of Kogi state may have come and gone.
It was an election many say did not reflect the real winner, as it was an election characterized by intimidation, violence, snatching of ballot boxes, thus making it not to have a true reflection of who was declared the winner.
The issues concerning the bye election would however continue to linger for long on the lips of many as it was an unusual election ever witnessed in the state, especially for the people of Lokoja Kogi federal constituency.
For now the constituents of the constituency want to forge ahead and are however already looking forward to the next election to the lower chamber of the National Assembly which come up in 2019.
The Peoples Democratic Party, from the last bye election, seem to have a grip of the Lokoja Kogi Federal constituency. However, political pundits are still of the views that managing the aspirants towards accepting a consensus arrangement is going to be a key factor to winning the general election in 2019 for the federal constituency.
Certainly, the next election would be a different ball game as the powers that be, would hardly have a free day, deploying it arsenal like it did during the last bye election on the people and two local government areas. As expected, election to all federal constituency’s would hold simultaneously across the nation, thus not allowing over concentration of government instrumentality on the two LGAs as was the case during the bye election.
Amongst those eyeing the House of Representative seat for the PDP in Lokoja Kogi federal constituency is one name that has stood out in terms of popularity, followership; Barr Ibrahim Shaba, one time council chairman of Kogi LGA.
He was a participant in the last shadow primaries that produced the PDP flag bearer for the just concluded bye election. Against book makers permutation, he lost to a relatively unknown personality. Findings however revealed that he was edged out by the party for what many say was his sin; leaving the PDP and returning at a time he did only to think he can get the party’s flag for the bye election.
Hon. Shaba’s return to the PDP it would be recalled was widely appreciated. He was tipped to emerge as the party’s candidate. He is one politician who enjoys stupendous goodwill. His return to the PDP was consummated by some powerful persons even at the National level with the promise for an automatic ticket in 2019. The death of late Buba Jibril however offered him the opportunity to want to test the waters, an action many say was made difficult for him by the state party officials and other interest who stood as obstacles.
But political analysts are of the view and opinion that having seen the method employed by the APC to win in the penultimate bye election, many see Hon. Shaba as having a better stand and place to win the election in 2019 because of his many advantages.
Several factors have been adduced for these permutation. Within the PDP, and APC, Hon. Shaba enjoys a strong hold and overwhelming followership and support base. Certainly, all the political parties unlike the bye election would pick their candidates from Kogi LGA. Thus, Hon. Shaba, without mincing words, a politician of Kogi LGA extraction, has an overwhelming support base in Lokoja, much than even in his Kogi LGA.
Similarly, his goodwill within the two political party sphare and in Lokoja LGA places Hon. Shaba as a household name, thus the candidate to beat.
It was obvious that the APC spent a fortune at the just concluded bye election. One man and name that can match the APC in terms of funds, not because he is rich, but because he enjoys a lot of goodwill which will attract him funds, is Hon. Shaba if given the ticket.
Similarly, Hon. Shaba has the capacity to match the APC with foot soldiers violently as was their strategy thus given them a run for their money either in Lokoja or Kogi LGA places him on the advantage.
The PDP can however benefit from these advantages as mentioned of Hon. Shaba, if only it can courageously do the needful, show political will and call the shoot by having a consensus candidate in him.
What the PDP must therefore begin to do and to work towards is in ensuring that their candidate for Lokoja Kogi Federal constituency emerges by consensus. This analysts opined would help the party reduce stress, strife, and save the candidate who emerge of wasting financial resources and energy on primaries that usually polarises political parties.
Allowing a party primaries as is been envisaged would allow the candidate who emerges to have been been spent of scarce financial resources that should have been deployed in the real contest. Recall also that the PDP action towards Hon. Shaba the last time has no doubt helped in depleting his investors having further interest in his aspiration, an action that would certainly impact on the chunk of money that he would have garnered for the next phase of the project.
Furthermore, a consensus approach that is been suggested to produce Hon. Shaba would help according to political gladiators in the federal constituency assist the improved fortune of the PDP. The party’s lost in the bye election without overstating the obvious certainly would have had a negative downturn for the PDP as some members recorded a lost of confidence.
For now, all said and done, and without wanting to sound immodest, the Lokoja Kogi federal constituency election for 2019 is for the PDP to take when viewed against the party’s strength. What is however needed is for the party to summon the political will by adopting a consensus approach that would help in strengthening the party’s unity, and allow the candidate who emerges to have saved his energy, and finance to be able to give a good fight and to win the general election in 2019.
Thus far, it is important to note that other interested gladiators with concern for the Federal Constituency are equally thinking alike in the direction of the party choosing a consensus option, most especially that it has in Hon. Shaba, all the right attributes to win in 2019.
Analysts having seen the level of deployment negatively employed by the APC in the last bye election which international and other observers opined didn’t meet the minimum standard of election anywhere in the world thinks a consensus approach is desirable for the PDP.
The consensus decision which the PDP must make must be seen against the background of party interest. No doubt many aspirants have picked intent forms. The party’s flag bearer at the just concluded bye election has also showed interest again to run. But like must people reason, it would be foolish like in a football match to once again field a loosing team. The million dollars question as to what is required to win Lokoja Kogi Federal Constituency general election is therefore left for the coach, who happens to be the PDP to take. What is now left is whether it can muster the courage to do that which is needful, and noble and adopt the consensus approach.
– Samson Oyebode.
